As Ukraine's hold on captured Russian territory weakens, the recent freeze on US arms poses a significant risk to its military strategy and territorial integrity.

Russian troops have been attempting to seize the strategic town of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine for over six months, as it is crucial for supplying frontline troops.

Ukraine began evacuating residents from Pokrovsk in September 2024, yet strong resistance has kept Russian forces at bay, limiting them to the outskirts of the town.

Putin has demanded that Ukraine give up both Zaporizhzhia and Kherson for peace, with capturing Kherson potentially requiring a complex amphibious assault across the Dnieper River.

Zaporizhzhia has never been occupied by Russian forces and holds symbolic importance as the site of the first Cossack fortress.

Without American military supplies such as GPS-guided missiles and artillery shells, Ukraine may struggle to maintain control over its territory in Kursk.

The capture of Kurakhove by Russian troops could facilitate their advance towards Zaporizhzhia, a city of historical significance to Ukrainians with a pre-war population of 700,000.

President Zelensky had initiated a counter-offensive last summer in anticipation of peace talks, but the arms embargo could compel him to order a retreat.

In a previous instance of US military aid hold-up, Ukraine lost the town of Avdiivka, which President Biden attributed to Congressional Republicans.

The decision by President Trump to pause US military aid is expected to accelerate Ukraine's potential defeat, particularly with the imminent threat of Pokrovsk falling to Russian forces.

Russia has regained two-thirds of the territory it lost in Kursk, and heavy casualties inflicted on North Korean forces have led to their retreat from the area.