OPEC has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024, projecting an increase of 2.11 million barrels per day, down from 2.25 million bpd, primarily due to decreased consumption in China.

The organization now expects global oil demand growth to be 2.07% in 2024 and 1.71% in 2025, reflecting concerns about China's economic performance.

OPEC highlights that uncertainties surrounding central bank policies, particularly prolonged high interest rates in the U.S., are affecting market sentiment and contributing to these downward revisions.

The decline in oil demand is largely attributed to challenges in China's consumer sector, particularly stemming from reduced investment in housing and office buildings.

Concerns about China's economic situation have led to downward pressure on oil prices, which saw a decline between May and July due to speculative sales.

This downward revision marks the first adjustment in OPEC's 2024 forecast since it was initially made in July 2023, reflecting weaker-than-expected data for the first half of the year.

As the world's largest oil importer, China's economic performance significantly impacts global oil consumption, making its slowdown a critical factor for the market.

Despite these challenges, OPEC+ plans to maintain significantly reduced supplies in line with existing agreements, even as combined output has recently increased.

Currently, oil prices are rising, with Brent crude trading at approximately $80.38 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $76.40 per barrel.

OPEC still anticipates demand growth to exceed the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day observed before the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the recent revisions.

These forecasts are based on a projected global economic growth of 2.9%, which aligns with expectations for this year and the next.

In contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects much lower demand growth, estimating only 970,000 bpd for 2024, highlighting a significant divergence among forecasters.