The Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) has raised alarms that an arbitrator's recommendations in their ongoing contract dispute with Chicago Public Schools (CPS) are likely to be rejected, which could lead to a strike vote.

State law requires the involvement of a fact-finding arbitrator before the CTU can legally strike, with recommendations expected by mid-February 2025.

While negotiations have seen some agreement on non-economic issues such as healthcare and planning time for staff, significant disputes remain regarding teacher raises and class size limits.

Following the arbitrator's findings, both parties will have 15 days to accept or reject them, and if rejected, the union can initiate a strike vote after a mandatory 30-day waiting period.

CPS has proposed a 4% salary increase for teachers over four years, while the CTU is demanding a 5% raise for the first two years and a 4% raise for the latter two years, along with increased salary opportunities for veteran teachers.

CPS officials assert they are facing budget deficits of at least $500 million in the coming years, claiming that additional commitments from the contract could jeopardize existing staff positions.

CPS CEO Pedro Martinez anticipates that the arbitrator will support the district's position that it lacks the funds to meet the union's contract demands.

CTU President Stacy Davis Gates has criticized the arbitration process as biased against the union, describing the situation as a 'cruel and mean joke.'

CTU Deputy General Thad Goodchild has also criticized the fact-finding law, arguing that it favors CPS by limiting the arbitrator's considerations to the district's current financial resources.

CTU researcher Pavlyn Jankov contends that CPS's financial position is strong enough to support more commitments, citing a healthy fund balance and anticipated future revenues.

Negotiations have been complicated by the recent leadership changes within CPS, including the firing of CEO Pedro Martinez, who remains involved in the discussions due to a court ruling.

The fact-finding process has been utilized three times since its inception in Illinois law in 2010, resulting in two teacher strikes in the past.