Trump's 60% Tariff Threats Loom Over China's Economy Amid Deflation and Trade Struggles
November 7, 2024As Donald Trump prepares for a potential second term, he has threatened to impose blanket tariffs of 60% on all Chinese exports, a move that could severely impact China's already struggling economy.
China's imports from the U.S. have decreased significantly, limiting its options for retaliation against American products.
The Chinese economy is currently facing deflation and property market issues, making a tariff battle particularly damaging as it relies heavily on exports, especially in electric vehicles and batteries.
The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth forecast for China, predicting only 4.8% growth in 2024, highlighting ongoing economic challenges.
Experts suggest that while China is preparing for a potential trade war, its options for countering extreme threats from the U.S. are limited and could have significant repercussions for its economy.
In response to Trump's tariff threats, China has developed strategies that include export controls on critical materials and targeting American companies, but it remains cautious about appearing weak.
Unlike in 2018, when China was unprepared for Trump's trade war, President Xi Jinping is now better equipped with a toolkit that includes tariffs and export controls.
China may opt for stimulus measures rather than direct retaliation against Trump's proposed tariffs, as responding to such high tariffs would be challenging.
Despite the challenges, China has emerged as a leader in high-tech exports, particularly in solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries.
China has implemented export controls on materials vital for technology, which could include critical raw materials needed by the U.S.
While China has seen growth in high-tech exports, Western countries are imposing higher tariffs on Chinese goods, complicating trade relations further.
In a recent message to Trump, Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of cooperation between the U.S. and China, indicating a willingness to engage despite the tensions.
Summary based on 10 sources
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Sources
BBC News • Nov 8, 2024
China is trying to fix its economy. Trump could derail those plansAP News • Nov 7, 2024
China is bracing for fresh tensions with Trump over trade, tech and TaiwanThe Seattle Times • Nov 7, 2024
China is bracing for fresh tensions with Trump over trade, tech and Taiwan