UK Job Vacancies Drop by 34,000; Unemployment Falls to 4% Amid Slow Pay Growth and Interest Rate Cut Speculation
October 16, 2024The estimated number of job vacancies in the UK has decreased by 34,000 to 841,000 during the July to September period, reflecting levels similar to those before the pandemic.
Despite this decline, the total number of job vacancies remains slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
The unemployment rate has fallen to 4%, down from 4.1%, indicating a trend of easing joblessness.
Following the recent data release, the British pound remained stable against the US dollar, with markets anticipating an 80% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut on November 7.
This reduction in unemployment corresponds with a decrease of 141,000 in the number of unemployed individuals, now totaling 1.386 million.
Additionally, the economic inactivity rate for individuals aged 16 to 64 has slightly decreased from 21.9% to 21.8%.
Total pay growth, including bonuses, was recorded at 3.8%, influenced by one-off payments to NHS and civil service workers.
Analysts note that while wage growth is improving, it remains above the Bank of England's inflation target, which could impact future monetary policy.
Economic advisers suggest that cooling inflation rates, potentially falling below the Bank of England's 2% target, may support arguments for an interest rate cut.
However, pay growth has slowed, with basic wages rising by 4.9% annually as of August, the lowest rate in over two years.
Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at abrdn, indicated that another interest rate cut in November appears likely, depending on the upcoming budget announcement.
Despite the positive trends, the Office for National Statistics cautioned that recent employment figures may be overstated due to declining response rates in the Labour Force Survey.
Summary based on 4 sources
Get a daily email with more EU News stories
Sources
BBC News • Oct 15, 2024
Unemployment rate dips as pay growth slowsEvening Standard • Oct 15, 2024
Door opens wider to rate cuts as wages rise at slowest pace for more than two yearsCyprus Mail • Oct 15, 2024
British pay growth hits two-year low, supporting rate cut expectations