As Donald Trump returns to the presidency in 2025, China is preparing for a renewed tariff conflict with the United States.

Trump has proposed imposing significant import tariffs of 60% on all Chinese goods, alongside an additional 10% tariff on specific items due to China's failure to address fentanyl trafficking.

Fujio Kawashima from Kobe University indicates that China is eager to cooperate with Japan to address the challenges posed by Trump's trade policies.

Economic analysts suggest that Trump may leverage the threat of high tariffs as a negotiating tactic with China rather than implementing them outright.

Experts warn that if the U.S. proceeds with these tariffs, it could worsen inflation domestically and reduce global demand, impacting economic recovery.

Meanwhile, China's economy is facing a downturn due to a prolonged property sector crisis, prompting discussions on stimulus measures since September 2024.

In light of these pressures, China is likely to seek to strengthen ties with Japan, South Korea, Europe, Russia, and ASEAN countries to counter U.S. pressures.

China and Taiwan's applications to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have been stalled, with Japan and Canada remaining cautious about China's membership.

Scott Kennedy from the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes that traditional U.S. allies are reassessing their positions and may consider increased engagement with China due to Trump's unilateral trade stance.

Despite rising tensions, there may be ongoing dialogue between the U.S. and China to avoid direct conflict, particularly regarding security matters.

Historically, Japan has opted for bilateral negotiations with the U.S. instead of utilizing the WTO to address trade grievances, contrasting with China's more aggressive approach.

Experts suggest that Japan and China could adopt a balanced approach to trade disputes this time around, avoiding both escalation and passive acceptance.