China's Steel Crisis: Iron Ore Prices Plummet, Threatening Global Markets and Australian Revenue

September 11, 2024
China's Steel Crisis: Iron Ore Prices Plummet, Threatening Global Markets and Australian Revenue
  • China, the largest importer of iron ore, brought in nearly 1.2 billion tonnes last year, but its steel production is struggling due to a crisis in the property market.

  • The ongoing collapse of China's property sector has severely impacted consumer confidence and spending, further straining the steel industry.

  • The head of China Baowu Steel Group has warned that the current situation in the steel industry is worse than during the crises of 2008 and 2015.

  • A recent survey revealed that only 1.3 percent of China's steelmakers are currently profitable, marking an unprecedented low.

  • Iron ore prices have plummeted, recently falling below $US90 per tonne, the lowest level in almost two years, driven by a slowdown in China's steel industry.

  • The Federal Treasury has warned that China's declining demand for iron ore could cost Australia over $3 billion in revenue over the next four years.

  • China's steel industry, which accounts for 57% of global production, is grappling with weak demand, trade barriers, and significant over-capacity.

  • Despite calls for a large stimulus package, President Xi Jinping is focusing on an export-led strategy to strengthen advanced manufacturing.

  • An unprecedented 150 million tonnes of iron ore is currently sitting at Chinese ports, exacerbating supply issues and contributing to price declines.

  • BHP has expressed confidence that prolonged price dips below $US100 are unlikely, as suppliers are expected to reduce output when prices fall below that threshold.

  • Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that the recent fall in iron ore prices underscores the volatility and uncertainty present in the global economy.

  • Analysts predict that iron ore prices could drop further to $US85 per tonne in the near term, reflecting ongoing market skepticism.

Summary based on 4 sources


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Sources

Iron ore slump shows that China’s deflation risk is rising

The Sydney Morning Herald • Sep 10, 2024

Iron ore slump shows that China’s deflation risk is rising

Iron ore under $US90 for the first time since 2022

The West Australian • Sep 9, 2024

Iron ore under $US90 for the first time since 2022

At-risk miners feel the creak as iron ore tests price floor

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