U.S. Job Growth Revised Down by 818,000, Fed Faces Tough Choices on Interest Rates
August 21, 2024The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has revised its job growth figures, revealing that the economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March 2024 than previously reported.
This downward revision, amounting to a 0.5% adjustment, indicates a weaker labor market than earlier estimates suggested.
Despite these revisions, the total number of jobs in the U.S. remains only 0.5% smaller than earlier estimates, highlighting some resilience in the job market.
However, the recent slowdown in job growth complicates the Federal Reserve's considerations regarding potential interest rate cuts.
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, up from a low of 3.4%, amid sustained high interest rates maintained by the Fed.
These revised job figures are crucial for the Federal Reserve's strategy, particularly as discussions about interest rate cuts are on the horizon.
The Fed is expected to begin cutting interest rates at its next meeting in mid-September, influenced by the current economic data.
Economist Olivia Cross noted that while non-farm payroll growth appears softer, it is not a major concern, suggesting any rate cuts would likely be in smaller increments.
Republicans have highlighted the job revision as the largest downward adjustment in 15 years, emphasizing its significance in the current economic climate.
The global market is currently betting on the Powell Fed achieving a soft landing to maintain economic stability, despite fears of a potential recession.
Following the release of the revised report, equity markets reacted positively, with major indices showing gains.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will likely address these revisions, as investors seek insights on future monetary policy.
Summary based on 23 sources
Get a daily email with more Macroeconomics stories
Sources
The Guardian • Aug 21, 2024
Newly released numbers indicate a weaker US job market than expectedTime • Aug 21, 2024
U.S. Economy Added 818,000 Fewer Jobs Than First ReportedBBC News • Aug 21, 2024
Jobs report revisions stoke US economy debateCNBC • Aug 21, 2024
Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says