The Federal Constitutional Court of Germany is poised to announce a ruling on the new electoral law, which could significantly alter party representation in the Bundestag.

This electoral reform, enacted by the Ampel coalition in March 2023, aims to reduce the Bundestag's size from 734 to 630 seats by eliminating overhang and compensatory mandates.

Under the new law, parties will only receive mandates proportional to their share of secondary votes, meaning excess direct mandates will no longer lead to additional seats.

A strict five-percent threshold has been established for parties to gain representation, removing the previous clause that allowed parties with three direct mandates to enter parliament despite receiving less than five percent of the second votes.

Without the basic mandate clause, the CSU could have faced exclusion from the Bundestag if its support among Bavarian voters had slightly decreased.

This change means that some electoral districts may not send a directly elected representative, effectively capping the Bundestag at 630 members.

During hearings in April, the court indicated it might criticize the removal of the basic mandate clause, which previously allowed the Left Party to gain seats with only 4.9% of the vote in 2021.

The Constitutional Court has declared the five percent threshold without the basic mandate clause unconstitutional, requiring its reinstatement until a new regulation is established.

There are discussions about potentially lowering the five-percent threshold to three percent, which the Bundestag may decide for future adjustments.

The implications of the court's ruling could lead to significant political shifts, particularly affecting the representation of parties like the CSU and the Left Party.

The ruling may not allow sufficient time for changes before the 2025 election, potentially forcing the court to implement electoral law changes directly.