Trump's Tariff Plan Sparks Fears of Economic Fallout for U.S. and EU
November 4, 2024Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, has announced plans to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on imported goods, with rates as high as 60% on products from China.
These proposed tariffs could jeopardize trade agreements Trump negotiated during his previous administration, particularly with Mexico, the United States' largest trade partner, and may provoke retaliatory measures.
Ed Gresser from the Progressive Policy Institute cautions that such tariffs could lead to higher inflation and lower economic growth, potentially resulting in a 'constitutional crisis'.
Goldman Sachs and UBS predict that EU exports to the U.S. could decrease by one-third, equating to about 150 billion euros annually, which may shrink the EU's GDP by 1% within three years.
This predicted GDP loss could erase expected growth for European firms, with earnings per share potentially dropping by 6-7 percentage points.
Germany, heavily reliant on exports, is particularly vulnerable to these trade tensions, especially compared to the more self-reliant U.S. economy.
A report from the Center for European Reform warns that U.S. tariffs could trigger retaliatory tariffs from Europe and divert investments back to the U.S.
The proposed tariffs could significantly impact Europe's export-driven industries, especially in sectors like automotive and machinery, which are already facing economic strain.
Critical minerals, essential for energy storage technologies, have become a focal point in U.S.-China economic competition, with China controlling over 80% of certain segments of the electric vehicle battery supply chain.
Despite her own stance on tariffs, Kamala Harris is viewed favorably by many economic representatives for her more targeted approach to trade policy.
Economic studies suggest that tariffs may negatively affect American citizens' real income and U.S. GDP, raising concerns about their overall effectiveness.
Experts express skepticism that the tariffs would improve the U.S. trade balance in the short term, as higher production costs might not spur U.S. manufacturing as intended.
Summary based on 35 sources
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Sources
The Washington Post • Nov 4, 2024
Trump threatens up to 100 percent tariffs on Mexico over immigrationThe Telegraph • Oct 29, 2024
Why Trump could crush the British economyYahoo Finance • Nov 5, 2024
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