Australia's Job Growth Slows in October, Unemployment Steady Amid Inflation Concerns

November 14, 2024
Australia's Job Growth Slows in October, Unemployment Steady Amid Inflation Concerns
  • Cameron McCormack, a VanEck portfolio manager, described the job market as robust, indicating little reason for the RBA to expedite its interest rate easing plans.

  • Australian employment figures for October revealed a net increase of 15,900 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 25,000 and significantly lower than the previous month's revised gain of 61,300.

  • The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, consistent since June, while the participation rate slightly decreased from a record high of 67.2% in September to 67.1%.

  • Approximately 16,000 jobs were added in October, slightly above the Bloomberg economists' forecast of 15,000 jobs, with 9,700 full-time and 6,200 part-time positions contributing to the net increase.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its cash rate at 4.35%, a significant increase from 0.1% during the pandemic, as it aims to control inflation within a target range of 2-3%.

  • Hours worked in October saw a modest increase of 0.1%, and the underemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%.

  • Market expectations indicate only a 10% chance of an RBA rate cut at the next meeting on December 10, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.

  • The strength in the labor market is contributing to rising services inflation, complicating the RBA's efforts to reduce inflation to its target range.

  • Despite a slowdown in new job creation, the annual job growth remains robust at 2.7%, with approximately 430,000 new jobs created in the year leading up to September 2024.

  • Headline inflation slowed to 2.8% in the third quarter, attributed to government electricity rebates, while underlying inflation remains elevated at 3.5%.

  • The job growth of 0.1% in October marked the slowest increase in recent months, significantly lower than the average 0.3% growth seen over the previous six months.

  • Despite the strong labor market, the RBA has indicated that prospects for a near-term interest rate cut are slim, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy until inflation trends sustainably downward.

Summary based on 3 sources


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