Australia's Job Growth Slows in October, Unemployment Steady Amid Inflation Concerns
November 14, 2024Cameron McCormack, a VanEck portfolio manager, described the job market as robust, indicating little reason for the RBA to expedite its interest rate easing plans.
Australian employment figures for October revealed a net increase of 15,900 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 25,000 and significantly lower than the previous month's revised gain of 61,300.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, consistent since June, while the participation rate slightly decreased from a record high of 67.2% in September to 67.1%.
Approximately 16,000 jobs were added in October, slightly above the Bloomberg economists' forecast of 15,000 jobs, with 9,700 full-time and 6,200 part-time positions contributing to the net increase.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained its cash rate at 4.35%, a significant increase from 0.1% during the pandemic, as it aims to control inflation within a target range of 2-3%.
Hours worked in October saw a modest increase of 0.1%, and the underemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%.
Market expectations indicate only a 10% chance of an RBA rate cut at the next meeting on December 10, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors.
The strength in the labor market is contributing to rising services inflation, complicating the RBA's efforts to reduce inflation to its target range.
Despite a slowdown in new job creation, the annual job growth remains robust at 2.7%, with approximately 430,000 new jobs created in the year leading up to September 2024.
Headline inflation slowed to 2.8% in the third quarter, attributed to government electricity rebates, while underlying inflation remains elevated at 3.5%.
The job growth of 0.1% in October marked the slowest increase in recent months, significantly lower than the average 0.3% growth seen over the previous six months.
Despite the strong labor market, the RBA has indicated that prospects for a near-term interest rate cut are slim, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy until inflation trends sustainably downward.
Summary based on 3 sources
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Sources
The Guardian • Nov 14, 2024
Static Australian unemployment rate makes near-term interest cut unlikelyInvesting.com • Nov 14, 2024
Australia employment miss forecasts in Oct after strong run, jobless rate steadyThe Nightly • Nov 14, 2024
Steady jobless rate gives RBA ‘little reason’ to start cuts