Fed Signals December Rate Cut Amid Persistent Inflation and Economic Resilience
November 13, 2024Key factors contributing to rising prices include housing costs, used cars, and airline tickets, as noted by economists.
Attention is now shifting to upcoming economic indicators, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and the November jobs report, which will provide further insights into the labor market.
The recent inflation data has influenced public perception of the economy, contributing to the political landscape, including Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris in the recent presidential election.
The Federal Reserve has initiated a strategy to lower inflation to around 2%, starting with interest rate cuts in September 2024 after inflation peaked at over 9% in June 2022.
Financial markets are increasingly optimistic about a potential interest rate cut in December, with the probability rising to 82%, up from 59% just a day earlier.
Despite a slight uptick in inflation, economist Ryan Sweet believes the Federal Reserve can still proceed with a rate cut in December, suggesting a pause afterward to evaluate the economic impact.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to reflect ongoing inflationary pressures, with consumer prices rising by 0.2% from September to October, while core prices, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.3% year-over-year.
This recent increase in consumer prices exceeded analysts' expectations, indicating a potential rise in inflation moving forward.
Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings saw a modest rise of 0.1% for the month and 1.4% year-over-year, suggesting some wage growth is occurring.
The U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience, growing at nearly a 3% annual rate over the past six months, primarily driven by increased consumer spending from higher-income individuals.
However, the combination of high mortgage rates and elevated home prices has created a challenging environment for homebuyers this fall.
Apartment rents have stabilized with a minimal nationwide increase of 0.2% year-over-year, although existing rents are rising faster due to previous adjustments by landlords.
Summary based on 40 sources
Get a daily email with more Macroeconomics stories
Sources
The Guardian • Nov 13, 2024
Key US inflation measure ticks higher for first time since MarchBBC News • Nov 13, 2024
Inflation progress stalls in US in OctoberBusiness Insider • Nov 13, 2024
Inflation in October: CPI rose 2.6%, housing prices up, gas prices downCNBC • Nov 13, 2024
Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations