Fed Signals December Rate Cut Amid Persistent Inflation and Economic Resilience

November 13, 2024
Fed Signals December Rate Cut Amid Persistent Inflation and Economic Resilience
  • Key factors contributing to rising prices include housing costs, used cars, and airline tickets, as noted by economists.

  • Attention is now shifting to upcoming economic indicators, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and the November jobs report, which will provide further insights into the labor market.

  • The recent inflation data has influenced public perception of the economy, contributing to the political landscape, including Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris in the recent presidential election.

  • The Federal Reserve has initiated a strategy to lower inflation to around 2%, starting with interest rate cuts in September 2024 after inflation peaked at over 9% in June 2022.

  • Financial markets are increasingly optimistic about a potential interest rate cut in December, with the probability rising to 82%, up from 59% just a day earlier.

  • Despite a slight uptick in inflation, economist Ryan Sweet believes the Federal Reserve can still proceed with a rate cut in December, suggesting a pause afterward to evaluate the economic impact.

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) continues to reflect ongoing inflationary pressures, with consumer prices rising by 0.2% from September to October, while core prices, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.3% year-over-year.

  • This recent increase in consumer prices exceeded analysts' expectations, indicating a potential rise in inflation moving forward.

  • Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings saw a modest rise of 0.1% for the month and 1.4% year-over-year, suggesting some wage growth is occurring.

  • The U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience, growing at nearly a 3% annual rate over the past six months, primarily driven by increased consumer spending from higher-income individuals.

  • However, the combination of high mortgage rates and elevated home prices has created a challenging environment for homebuyers this fall.

  • Apartment rents have stabilized with a minimal nationwide increase of 0.2% year-over-year, although existing rents are rising faster due to previous adjustments by landlords.

Summary based on 40 sources


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Sources


Inflation progress stalls in US in October



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