Since late September, Israel has intensified its military actions in Lebanon, targeting major cities including southern Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.

The United Nations estimates that if the conflict persists until the end of the year, Lebanon's GDP could contract by 9.2%, equating to around $2 billion.

Lebanon was already grappling with a severe economic downturn and political crisis when hostilities escalated, marked by Hezbollah's rocket attacks against Israel.

The UN emphasizes the urgent need for the international community to mobilize humanitarian aid and development assistance to support stability in critical areas such as water, food, health, sanitation, and infrastructure.

The ongoing conflict has resulted in significant displacement, with approximately 800,000 people displaced within Lebanon and nearly 500,000 fleeing to Syria.

The UNDP anticipates that the conflict will continue until the end of 2024, leading to a 30% increase in Lebanon's government financing needs.

Lebanon's economy has been in crisis for several years, suffering a 28% GDP contraction from 2018 to 2021 and a staggering 98% devaluation of the Lebanese pound.

The conflict poses a significant threat to Lebanon's fragile economy, with profound implications for GDP and unemployment in the long term.

Lebanon's crisis response minister stated that the country requires $250 million monthly to assist over 1.2 million individuals displaced by the conflict.

An international conference is scheduled in Paris to address the UN's appeal for $400 million in aid for displaced persons in Lebanon.

Without substantial international support, Lebanon's economic outlook remains bleak, with projected GDP declines of 2.28% in 2025 and 2.43% in 2026.

The UNDP warns that the scale of military involvement and geopolitical context of the current conflict may lead to economic impacts greater than those experienced during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.