Moreover, the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Ratio has increased, suggesting that Toncoin may be overvalued as its market cap is high relative to transaction volume.

Toncoin is currently trading at $5.33, approaching a resistance level of $5.35, which may prove challenging to surpass.

However, the TON network has seen a significant decline in daily active users, dropping from over 5 million to just 1.58 million, raising concerns about diminishing interest.

Despite this, upcoming Telegram airdrops in October could positively impact market sentiment, potentially increasing demand for Toncoin and pushing its price up to $6.20.

This decline in user activity coincides with a broader market downturn and reduced network activity, affecting various metrics including new and zero-balance addresses.

Recent data indicates that Toncoin's price has fluctuated between $5 and $5.40 over the past two weeks, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50, signaling weak buyer interest.

The RSI has dropped to 44.38, reflecting a weakening buying pressure and a balanced market sentiment, contrasting with high retail interest in the broader crypto market.

Despite negative MVRV ratios indicating a potential buying opportunity, this has not spurred Toncoin investors to accumulate more tokens.

If the recent uptick in network usage continues, it may help reignite bullish sentiment around Toncoin, although the overall outlook remains cautious.

Currently, Toncoin appears to be overvalued, having declined nearly 14% from a late September high of $6.13, and risks an 18% drop to around $4.28 if it fails to break out of its consolidation phase.

Market conditions are fluid, and investors are advised to conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions.

Additionally, a decrease in large holder netflow suggests that whales are offloading their holdings, which could further contribute to downward pressure on the price.