ECB Eyes Deeper Rate Cuts as Inflation Misses Target, Economic Growth Slows

October 24, 2024
ECB Eyes Deeper Rate Cuts as Inflation Misses Target, Economic Growth Slows
  • Bostjan Vasle, a policymaker at the European Central Bank (ECB), has advised a cautious approach to interest rate cuts amid ongoing inflation uncertainties.

  • He noted that inflation in September was lower than expected, with both core and underlying inflation moving closer to the ECB's medium-term target of 2%.

  • In a recent interview, Vasle suggested that upcoming data trends could support a 50 basis point cut in interest rates.

  • Concerns have been raised by several policymakers, including Mario Centeno and Francois Villeroy de Galhau, about inflation potentially undershooting the ECB's target.

  • The ECB has acknowledged that the disinflationary process is progressing well, although recent economic activity indicators have been disappointing.

  • Earlier this month, the ECB reduced borrowing costs by a quarter point for the second consecutive meeting, signaling a shift in monetary policy.

  • Lagarde emphasized that future monetary policy decisions will depend on forthcoming economic data, indicating no predetermined path for interest rates.

  • Economic conditions in the Eurozone are deteriorating, with inflation falling below earlier predictions, raising concerns about price growth not meeting the ECB's target.

  • This marks the first back-to-back interest rate cuts in 13 years, reflecting a significant shift from previous hikes aimed at controlling inflation.

  • Centeno believes there is room to stimulate the economy through increased spending and investment before potential unemployment rises hinder growth.

  • Vasle warned that inflation is not fully under control, particularly in services, and that rapid wage growth indicates ongoing inflationary pressures.

  • A growing faction of policymakers is advocating for deeper cuts to prevent inflation from dropping too low amid rapidly deteriorating economic conditions.

Summary based on 12 sources


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