UK Job Vacancies Drop by 34,000; Unemployment Falls to 4% Amid Slow Pay Growth and Interest Rate Cut Speculation

October 16, 2024
UK Job Vacancies Drop by 34,000; Unemployment Falls to 4% Amid Slow Pay Growth and Interest Rate Cut Speculation
  • The estimated number of job vacancies in the UK has decreased by 34,000 to 841,000 during the July to September period, reflecting levels similar to those before the pandemic.

  • Despite this decline, the total number of job vacancies remains slightly above pre-pandemic levels.

  • The unemployment rate has fallen to 4%, down from 4.1%, indicating a trend of easing joblessness.

  • Following the recent data release, the British pound remained stable against the US dollar, with markets anticipating an 80% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut on November 7.

  • This reduction in unemployment corresponds with a decrease of 141,000 in the number of unemployed individuals, now totaling 1.386 million.

  • Additionally, the economic inactivity rate for individuals aged 16 to 64 has slightly decreased from 21.9% to 21.8%.

  • Total pay growth, including bonuses, was recorded at 3.8%, influenced by one-off payments to NHS and civil service workers.

  • Analysts note that while wage growth is improving, it remains above the Bank of England's inflation target, which could impact future monetary policy.

  • Economic advisers suggest that cooling inflation rates, potentially falling below the Bank of England's 2% target, may support arguments for an interest rate cut.

  • However, pay growth has slowed, with basic wages rising by 4.9% annually as of August, the lowest rate in over two years.

  • Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at abrdn, indicated that another interest rate cut in November appears likely, depending on the upcoming budget announcement.

  • Despite the positive trends, the Office for National Statistics cautioned that recent employment figures may be overstated due to declining response rates in the Labour Force Survey.

Summary based on 4 sources


Get a daily email with more EU News stories

More Stories