New COVID-19 Model Enhances Outbreak Management with Advanced Math and Fractional Calculus

February 22, 2025
New COVID-19 Model Enhances Outbreak Management with Advanced Math and Fractional Calculus
  • The study underscores the critical role of symptom awareness and compliance with preventive measures in effectively reducing the transmission rates of infectious diseases.

  • A novel SEI1I2I3QCR model has been introduced, which utilizes fractional-order delay differential equations to improve the understanding of COVID-19 dynamics.

  • By allowing for latency periods and the progression of infection, the model provides greater accuracy in simulating disease transmission and its oscillations.

  • This research aims to address gaps in the literature regarding COVID-19 transmission dynamics and control measures, offering valuable insights for future public health interventions.

  • Numerical simulations validate the model's effectiveness, as it closely aligns with actual COVID-19 data from China, showcasing its potential to guide pandemic response strategies.

  • Stability analyses within the study emphasize the significance of fractional order and delay parameters in managing the spread of infectious diseases.

  • Traditional epidemic models, such as SIR, have been expanded to include additional compartments, allowing for a more detailed representation of disease progression among both asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals.

  • Recent research highlights the increasing importance of advanced mathematical models in managing infectious disease outbreaks, especially during global health crises.

  • This model incorporates fractional calculus, which accounts for memory effects and time delays, thereby reflecting the complex transmission dynamics associated with COVID-19.

  • The application of optimal control theory within the model simulates non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as quarantine and awareness campaigns, showing a significant reduction in infection rates.

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