The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, culminated in December 2024 with the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime following a coordinated rebel offensive.

For over a decade, Assad's regime, backed by Iran and Russia, maintained an illusion of stability by suppressing dissent, but this facade quickly crumbled.

Iran had invested between $30 billion and $50 billion in military aid to support Assad, yet it was unprepared for the regime's rapid downfall.

In the wake of Assad's fall, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, denounced the event as a foreign conspiracy, revealing internal divisions about how to respond.

This disruption has heightened Iran's strategic challenges, undermining the 'axis of resistance' that included various allied groups in the region.

The collapse of Assad presents a unique opportunity for the U.S. to influence Syria's future by supporting Kurdish forces and promoting inclusive political dialogue among Syrian factions.

Such dialogue is essential to mitigate the power vacuum left by Assad's departure and to prevent external exploitation of ethnic and religious divisions.

Moreover, U.S. support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces is crucial for countering ISIS and stabilizing northeastern Syria, while encouraging restraint among Israeli forces remains important.

Engaging Iran in discussions about Syria's future could help address its security concerns and potentially reduce its disruptive activities in the region.

Domestically, discontent is rising within Iran over the regime's failure to protect Assad, which may embolden Sunni extremist groups in its southern regions.

In response to these developments, Iran is adapting its strategy by seeking engagement with Syrian Kurdish groups and possibly reorienting its ties with Shiite and Alawite minorities.

Assad's collapse has disrupted Iran's logistical connections to Hezbollah, isolating the group and significantly impacting its operational capabilities against Israel.