Iran's geopolitical position has weakened significantly in recent weeks, particularly following Israel's decisive actions against Hezbollah, which resulted in the loss of its leadership and many fighters in November 2024.

In the wake of these developments, Sunni rebels have taken advantage of Israel's successes, advancing south from Idlib and effectively ending the Assad family's long-standing rule in Syria, which disrupts Iran's land corridor to Hezbollah.

As a result, international concern is shifting back to Iran's nuclear program, with Western nations warning of Iran's increased stockpile of highly enriched uranium without credible civilian justification.

The US Director of National Intelligence recently reported that Iran possesses sufficient fissile material for over a dozen nuclear weapons, although it has not yet decided to pursue bomb production.

Despite heightened rhetoric, Iran has not enriched uranium beyond 60 percent, and its estimated breakout time remains unchanged, suggesting no immediate move toward weaponization.

However, US and Israeli intelligence have detected new weaponization activities in Iran, though the true extent of these efforts remains obscured due to limited oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

In response to perceived threats, Iranian officials have hinted at potential changes in military doctrine, but experts believe this is primarily a pressure tactic against Western nations.

Both Iran and Israel are likely waiting to see how US policy develops under the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump before making significant moves.

Amid these tensions, Israel is now considering military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, believing it has the capability to conduct effective long-range airstrikes.

Israeli military officials suggest that while they could delay Iran's nuclear program through strikes, completely dismantling it would be challenging due to Iran's dispersed and fortified infrastructure.

Moreover, Iran's missile capabilities have been underwhelming, with two major attacks on Israel resulting in minimal casualties, prompting Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites and the destruction of advanced air defense systems.

Despite these tensions, Iran has agreed to enhanced monitoring at its Fordow nuclear site, indicating some level of cooperation with international oversight while leveraging its uranium stockpile for future negotiations.