As a result of the disappointing trial results, Novo Nordisk's stock price plummeted nearly 18% by midday on December 20, 2024, reaching its lowest point since August 2023.

The trial involved 3,417 overweight or obese individuals, all of whom had one or more comorbidities, highlighting the drug's target demographic.

In contrast, Eli Lilly's stock rose by up to 12% in pre-market trading, buoyed by the success of its own weight loss drug, Zepbound, and positive sentiment towards competitors like Viking Therapeutics.

Currently, Novo Nordisk holds a 74% market share in the weight loss medication sector, which is primarily dominated by itself and Eli Lilly.

Despite the setback, Martin Holst Lange, Novo Nordisk's executive vice president for development, expressed optimism about the trial results and indicated plans to further explore CagriSema's weight loss potential.

Analysts have mixed opinions on the future of CagriSema, with some suggesting that a 23% weight loss could still be commercially viable in the long term.

Novo Nordisk's recent clinical trials for its weight loss drug CagriSema fell short of expectations, with participants losing an average of 22.7% of their weight, below the anticipated 25%.

Investors had high hopes for CagriSema, and the trial results have raised concerns about Novo Nordisk's ability to maintain its leading position in the obesity drug market.

The competitive landscape for GLP-1 medications is intensifying, with Morgan Stanley projecting the global market could reach $105 billion by 2030, driving pharmaceutical companies to innovate.

Novo Nordisk, previously Europe's largest company by market capitalization, valued over $460 billion, is now facing challenges in replicating the success of its blockbuster drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy.

Novo Nordisk is set to announce results from a second phase 3 trial of CagriSema in the first half of 2025, which may provide further insights into the drug's effectiveness.

The World Obesity Federation predicts that by 2035, over half of the global population will be overweight or obese, emphasizing the growing demand for effective weight loss treatments.