Investor Caution Grows: European Equities Outlook Dims Amid 'No Landing' Economic Scenario

January 21, 2025
Investor Caution Grows: European Equities Outlook Dims Amid 'No Landing' Economic Scenario
  • Interestingly, 38% of survey respondents anticipate a 'no landing' scenario for the global economy over the next twelve months, a significant increase from just 6% in September 2024.

  • This 'no landing' outlook is accompanied by a belief that the macroeconomic environment will be characterized by sustained growth and persistent inflation, with 44% of those surveyed supporting this view.

  • In terms of the US economy, nearly 70% of investors believe that growth will remain robust, indicating confidence in the American market.

  • China's stimulus measures are seen as a major upside risk to global growth, which could potentially bolster investor confidence.

  • However, optimism regarding China's growth has waned, with only 21% of investors expecting an increase, down from 36% the previous month.

  • For the first time since October 2022, a net 7% of respondents expect an increase in yields, signaling a notable shift in investor sentiment.

  • Concerns about central bank policies have also risen, with 41% of investors identifying Federal Reserve rate hikes as a primary tail risk for markets.

  • Bank of America released its European Fund Manager Survey on January 21, 2025, revealing a shift in investor sentiment towards a more cautious outlook for near-term European equities.

  • Investor optimism has decreased, with only 44% now expecting gains in European equities, down from 56% last month, although a majority still see potential upside over the next year.

  • In fact, 26% of respondents now cite hawkish central banks as a potential trigger for market corrections, a significant rise from just 8% in December 2024.

  • Despite these concerns, half of the respondents believe that earnings upgrades will drive further equity increases, and a net 33% consider European equities to be undervalued.

  • Nonetheless, only 7% of respondents expect a global decline in inflation over the next year, marking the lowest figure in two years.

Summary based on 1 source


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Key takeaways from BofA's European Fund Manager Survey

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