Global Trade Resilience Amid Tensions: Economists Predict 2025 Challenges and Regional Shifts

January 21, 2025
Global Trade Resilience Amid Tensions: Economists Predict 2025 Challenges and Regional Shifts
  • In contrast, Europe is expected to remain the weakest economic region, with 74% of economists predicting weak or very weak growth for the third consecutive year.

  • In response to these challenges, businesses are likely to adopt strategies such as restructuring supply chains (91%), regionalizing operations (90%), and concentrating on core markets (79%).

  • Aengus Collins from the World Economic Forum highlights the considerable strain on the global economy, marking the weakest growth outlook in decades due to contentious economic policies.

  • China's economic growth is projected to decelerate due to low consumer demand and decreased productivity, complicating global recovery efforts.

  • Key areas impacted by these shifts include trade, migration, deregulation, fiscal policy, and industrial policy, with a solid short-term growth outlook for the US in 2025 driven by rising wages and potential stimulus.

  • Despite facing numerous challenges, nearly half of chief economists anticipate a rise in global trade volumes for 2025, showcasing resilience in global commerce amid escalating trade tensions.

  • Protectionism is recognized as a primary factor reshaping global trade patterns, with 82% of economists forecasting increased regionalization of trade over the next three years.

  • Only 17% of surveyed economists expect an improvement in economic conditions, reflecting heightened uncertainty in key regions and the need for careful policy responses.

  • Furthermore, 59% of economists expect a similar trend in services trade, while over three-quarters anticipate higher barriers to labor mobility.

  • Looking ahead, 56% of chief economists foresee a weakening of global economic conditions in 2025, indicating significant challenges on the horizon.

  • Concerns about rising public debt are prevalent, with nearly all economists (97%) expecting an increase, and 94% anticipating higher inflation risks within the US economy.

  • Almost two-thirds of economists predict rising constraints on technology and data transfers, although less than half foresee increased fragmentation in the financial sector due to its essential cross-border role.

Summary based on 1 source


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