Global Trade Resilience Amid Tensions: Economists Predict 2025 Challenges and Regional Shifts
January 21, 2025In contrast, Europe is expected to remain the weakest economic region, with 74% of economists predicting weak or very weak growth for the third consecutive year.
In response to these challenges, businesses are likely to adopt strategies such as restructuring supply chains (91%), regionalizing operations (90%), and concentrating on core markets (79%).
Aengus Collins from the World Economic Forum highlights the considerable strain on the global economy, marking the weakest growth outlook in decades due to contentious economic policies.
China's economic growth is projected to decelerate due to low consumer demand and decreased productivity, complicating global recovery efforts.
Key areas impacted by these shifts include trade, migration, deregulation, fiscal policy, and industrial policy, with a solid short-term growth outlook for the US in 2025 driven by rising wages and potential stimulus.
Despite facing numerous challenges, nearly half of chief economists anticipate a rise in global trade volumes for 2025, showcasing resilience in global commerce amid escalating trade tensions.
Protectionism is recognized as a primary factor reshaping global trade patterns, with 82% of economists forecasting increased regionalization of trade over the next three years.
Only 17% of surveyed economists expect an improvement in economic conditions, reflecting heightened uncertainty in key regions and the need for careful policy responses.
Furthermore, 59% of economists expect a similar trend in services trade, while over three-quarters anticipate higher barriers to labor mobility.
Looking ahead, 56% of chief economists foresee a weakening of global economic conditions in 2025, indicating significant challenges on the horizon.
Concerns about rising public debt are prevalent, with nearly all economists (97%) expecting an increase, and 94% anticipating higher inflation risks within the US economy.
Almost two-thirds of economists predict rising constraints on technology and data transfers, although less than half foresee increased fragmentation in the financial sector due to its essential cross-border role.
Summary based on 1 source
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Modern Diplomacy • Jan 20, 2025
2025 Economic Forecast: Challenges Ahead with Debt, Divisions, and Political Unrest