Japan's Economic Outlook Dimmed by Rising Costs and Surge in Corporate Bankruptcies

January 14, 2025
Japan's Economic Outlook Dimmed by Rising Costs and Surge in Corporate Bankruptcies
  • Corporate bankruptcies in Japan surged to a decade-high in 2024, totaling 9,901 cases, a 16.5% increase from the prior year, driven by escalating raw material costs and a labor shortage.

  • Core inflation in Japan has consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for nearly three years, largely due to rising import costs linked to a weak yen.

  • The Bank of Japan is set to hold a two-day policy meeting ending on January 24, 2025, where analysts are predicting a potential interest rate hike from the current 0.25%.

  • BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino has indicated that discussions regarding a possible interest rate increase will take place, citing positive trends in Japan's wage outlook.

  • Policymakers remain optimistic that the annual rise in regular pay, currently between 2.5% and 3%, will bolster consumption, although this may create challenges for smaller firms struggling to retain employees.

  • In December 2024, Japan's service-sector sentiment improved, with a sentiment index of 49.9, marking a 0.5-point increase from November.

  • The 'economy watchers' survey, which serves as a leading indicator of household spending, reflects the sentiment of companies closely linked to consumer behavior.

  • Despite an uptick in service-sector sentiment, firms' outlook for the economy has declined to 48.8, reflecting concerns over rising fuel and food prices that are likely to impact consumer spending.

  • Companies are anticipating worsening economic conditions due to increasing living costs, which are expected to further affect household spending.

  • Japan's economy recorded an annualized growth of 1.2% in the third quarter of 2024, a decrease from the previous quarter's 2.2%, with consumer spending rising by only 0.7%.

Summary based on 2 sources


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