South Korea's Political Divide Threatens Economy with Trust Decline and Rising Conflict Costs
January 13, 2025Since the 19th National Assembly election in 2012, South Korea's ideological polarization has increased over 3.5 times, reflecting a significant shift in the political landscape.
Experts warn that this deepening political divide is adversely affecting economic activities in South Korea, stifling businesses and small merchants amid ongoing political risks.
The Social Integration Survey reveals a significant decline in South Korea's trust perception index, dropping from 2.76 in 2014 to 2.53 in 2023, which underscores the detrimental effects of political conflict on social cohesion.
In light of these challenges, experts are calling for political restoration, emphasizing the necessity for politics to effectively promote social integration to mitigate the economic impact.
This decline coincides with a rise in the ideological polarization index, which surged from 0.36 in 2012 to 1.26 in 2020, indicating a growing divide in political views among parties and voters.
Prof. Yeom Myung-bae cautioned that ongoing political turmoil could jeopardize South Korea's national credit rating, while Prof. Kim Dae-jong projected that the economic growth rate is expected to fall to 1.5% in 2025, making political stability a critical concern.
A National Assembly official highlighted the deterioration of cooperative political practices, noting that lawmakers increasingly see each other as adversaries, which further erodes social trust.
Research led by Prof. Kim Sang-bae indicates that increased policy uncertainty has caused a contraction in corporate credit transactions, with companies choosing to hold cash due to unpredictability about future cash flows.
The economic repercussions of political turmoil were particularly evident in 2017, following the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, which resulted in a spike in conflict costs.
From 2011 to 2022, social conflicts stemming from political instability have cost the South Korean economy approximately 2,352 trillion won, averaging 213.82 trillion won annually, or 8.9% of the nominal GDP in 2022.
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Businesskorea • Jan 13, 2025
Economic Costs of Political Instability Soar in South Korea