South Korea's Political Divide Threatens Economy with Trust Decline and Rising Conflict Costs

January 13, 2025
South Korea's Political Divide Threatens Economy with Trust Decline and Rising Conflict Costs
  • Since the 19th National Assembly election in 2012, South Korea's ideological polarization has increased over 3.5 times, reflecting a significant shift in the political landscape.

  • Experts warn that this deepening political divide is adversely affecting economic activities in South Korea, stifling businesses and small merchants amid ongoing political risks.

  • The Social Integration Survey reveals a significant decline in South Korea's trust perception index, dropping from 2.76 in 2014 to 2.53 in 2023, which underscores the detrimental effects of political conflict on social cohesion.

  • In light of these challenges, experts are calling for political restoration, emphasizing the necessity for politics to effectively promote social integration to mitigate the economic impact.

  • This decline coincides with a rise in the ideological polarization index, which surged from 0.36 in 2012 to 1.26 in 2020, indicating a growing divide in political views among parties and voters.

  • Prof. Yeom Myung-bae cautioned that ongoing political turmoil could jeopardize South Korea's national credit rating, while Prof. Kim Dae-jong projected that the economic growth rate is expected to fall to 1.5% in 2025, making political stability a critical concern.

  • A National Assembly official highlighted the deterioration of cooperative political practices, noting that lawmakers increasingly see each other as adversaries, which further erodes social trust.

  • Research led by Prof. Kim Sang-bae indicates that increased policy uncertainty has caused a contraction in corporate credit transactions, with companies choosing to hold cash due to unpredictability about future cash flows.

  • The economic repercussions of political turmoil were particularly evident in 2017, following the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, which resulted in a spike in conflict costs.

  • From 2011 to 2022, social conflicts stemming from political instability have cost the South Korean economy approximately 2,352 trillion won, averaging 213.82 trillion won annually, or 8.9% of the nominal GDP in 2022.

Summary based on 1 source


Get a daily email with more Macroeconomics stories

Source

More Stories