Core goods price pressures are remaining soft globally, with the G5 economies experiencing sub-zero inflation rates for the seventh consecutive month, although a tariff-driven increase in inflation is expected in 2025.

Global financial conditions are anticipated to become less accommodating, primarily due to high US interest rates and concerns regarding capital flight and currency weakness.

In contrast to global trends, Brazil's central bank raised its policy rates in December 2024, with expectations for continued tightening through the first half of 2025.

OPEC+ has postponed raising production for the third time in December 2024, citing deteriorating demand prospects, which is expected to lead to a nearly 3% decline in non-energy commodity prices in 2025.

Global real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward by 0.2 percentage points, now projected at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively.

Many European economies are likely to face challenges due to their sensitivity to trade and manufacturing trends, compounded by ongoing political and fiscal issues.

S&P Global's Purchasing Managers Indexes indicate weak manufacturing indicators, although there has been some recent improvement, particularly in US services, highlighted by a notable rise in the new orders subindex.

The European Central Bank is expected to continue its gradual easing through 2025, influenced by persistent economic weakness, which may contribute to a weaker euro.

Global consumer price inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted upward, largely due to higher US inflation expectations linked to tariffs and labor market conditions.

Crude oil price forecasts remain steady, with average prices expected to be $72 per barrel in 2025 and $69 per barrel in 2026, down from over $80 per barrel in 2024, amid expectations of a supply surplus and soft demand.

These global economic conditions may restrict the ability of central banks to ease monetary policies, although differing economic situations could lead to varied policy responses.

Mainland China's growth forecast has been lowered to 4.2% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, primarily due to anticipated US tariff increases, although domestic stimulus measures are expected to help mitigate the impact.