Citi Thailand has projected a GDP growth of 3.2% for the country in 2025, a notable increase from the anticipated 2.7% in 2024.

This optimistic outlook is largely attributed to robust domestic investments from both public and private sectors, as well as a thriving tourism industry.

Tourism is expected to be a significant economic driver, with foreign tourist arrivals forecasted to reach 41 million in 2025, up from 36.5 million in 2024, despite a decline in tourist spending.

Investment applications approved by the Board of Investment (BOI) during 2023 and 2024 are anticipated to come to fruition, particularly in the digital sectors such as data centers and electric vehicles.

Public investment is projected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, a rise from 1.6% in 2024, following delays in budget disbursements for infrastructure projects.

Government consumption is expected to increase by 3.1% in 2025, while private consumption growth may slow to 3.5%, down from 4.4%.

Citi forecasts a recovery in private investment, predicting a growth rate of 4.4% in 2025 after a projected contraction of 1.8% in 2024, driven by previously approved investments.

Despite strong employment in the service sector supporting household income, the manufacturing sector, particularly automobiles, is facing challenges due to high household debt.

Thailand's goods exports are expected to grow by 2.8% in 2025, a decrease from 4.6% in 2024, amid global trade uncertainties and ongoing tensions between the US and China.

Citi also forecasts that the Bank of Thailand will maintain a neutral monetary policy, with a potential cut of 0.25 percentage points in the policy rate during the first quarter of 2025 if economic recovery does not meet expectations.

Overall, the medium-term GDP growth rate for Thailand is expected to stabilize around 3%, with hopes for reforms aimed at enhancing economic competitiveness and increasing fiscal revenues.