Trade protectionism in the U.S. is expected to drive up prices on Chinese imports, contributing to global inflationary pressures.

The forecast includes anticipated higher import taxes in the United States, particularly affecting goods from Chinese supply chains.

These higher tariffs could trigger a trade war with China, potentially leading to a 0.6% decline in China's growth, which would fall below its 5% target.

In Europe, U.S. tariffs could result in a 0.5% loss in growth, with recession risks increasing if trade tensions escalate.

Emerging economies, particularly those dependent on China's demand for commodities, face risks that could be exacerbated by a potential trade war.

Overall, while global growth is set to stabilize, the outlook remains contingent on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China trade relations and China's internal economic policies.

Emerging markets are expected to be the main drivers of global economic activity, especially in commodities exports, with India and the United States showing strong economic performance.

Global economic growth is projected to expand at a rate of 2.5% in 2025, reflecting a continued sluggish recovery from the pandemic.

Central banks worldwide are anticipated to ease monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve expected to lower its policy rate to 3.5% in 2025.

Global inflation is expected to ease to approximately 4% in 2025 following a peak of 9.4% in the third quarter of 2022, as supply disruptions from the pandemic diminish.

The Bloomberg commodity price index has shown a 27.8% decline since its peak in June 2022, indicating sluggish demand and price pressures on commodities and oil.

The eurozone continues to face challenges from higher energy costs due to reduced reliance on Russian oil and gas, coupled with industrial overcapacity.