Germany Faces Second Year of Recession Amid Industrial Decline and Political Uncertainty
November 22, 2024
- The Bundesbank predicts that economic weakness will persist into the fourth quarter, with ongoing challenges such as a slowdown in China's growth and rising corporate bankruptcies. 
- Overall, the outlook remains bleak, with analysts warning of a potential 'winter recession' as economic conditions continue to deteriorate. 
- Inflation rates rose to 2.0% in October 2024, influenced by previous declines in energy and travel prices. 
- Despite these challenges, consumer spending increased by 0.3% in the summer, driven by rising wages and government expenditures. 
- This increase in consumer spending has temporarily shielded the economy from slipping into a technical recession. 
- This follows a contraction of 0.3% in the second quarter, indicating persistent economic struggles. 
- The German economy grew by a modest 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024, a downward revision from the previously estimated 0.2%. 
- The government forecasts a GDP contraction of 0.2% for the year, marking a second consecutive year of recession, but anticipates a recovery with 1.1% growth in 2025. 
- Political uncertainties, including Donald Trump's election victory in the U.S. and the collapse of Germany's governing coalition, have heightened economic risks and reduced forecasts. 
- These concerns are compounded by international factors, such as potential U.S. tariffs and domestic instability. 
- High energy prices and bureaucratic hurdles are further straining Germany's industrial competitiveness, particularly affecting exports. 
- The industrial sector is under significant pressure, with key industries like automotive, machinery, and electronics reporting production declines of 6.9%, 8.5%, and 10.7% respectively. 
Summary based on 10 sources


