The incoming White House administration under Donald Trump is anticipated to implement strict trade policies, including significant tariffs on Chinese goods.

Trump's proposed tariffs include a staggering 60 percent on Chinese imports and 10-20 percent on goods from other countries, aimed at boosting US manufacturing and energy production.

Key Vietnamese export sectors, such as seafood, tyres, and steel, may face immediate challenges from these tariffs, potentially reducing long-term demand.

Despite these challenges, Vietnamese firms could seize market opportunities by capturing the reduced US demand for Chinese goods.

Vietnam, which recorded a trade surplus of $83 billion with the US and a trade deficit of $49 billion with China, is particularly vulnerable to shifts in US trade policies.

Additionally, Vietnam's foreign direct investment might increase as companies look to shift production from China to neighboring countries, benefiting sectors like industrial real estate and transportation.

The Vietnamese stock market reacted positively to the US election results, with the VN-Index experiencing a significant rise on November 6, 2024, particularly benefiting industrial real estate and export stocks.

Investors are advised to focus on sectors such as industrial real estate, textiles, and wood products, which may be influenced by the evolving trade dynamics.

However, ACBS Research warns that if Trump enforces his tariffs, the Vietnamese dong (VND) may depreciate due to a stronger US dollar, complicating Vietnam's monetary policy.

Dinh Duc Quang from UOB Vietnam suggests that the impact on VND interest rates will be minimal due to Vietnam's regulated currency framework, which helps maintain stability in long-term trade and investment.

HSBC's Frederic Neumann believes that Vietnam's economic fundamentals are robust enough to withstand exchange rate fluctuations, with potential for increased domestic demand despite a deceleration in exports.

Finally, while Trump's policies may favor oil and gas services, there remains a continuing emphasis on clean energy, reflecting the complexity of future energy demands.