Canada's Inflation Surges to 2% in October, Impacting Interest Rate Cut Prospects

November 19, 2024
Canada's Inflation Surges to 2% in October, Impacting Interest Rate Cut Prospects
  • Additionally, property taxes experienced a significant increase of 6% from the previous year, marking the highest annual rise since 1992.

  • Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.0% in October 2024, surpassing expectations of 1.9%, primarily due to a smaller annual decrease in gasoline prices.

  • Gasoline prices fell by only 4% in October compared to a 10.7% drop in September, contributing to the overall rise in inflation.

  • This increase marks the first rise in the annual inflation rate since June, aligning with central bank predictions of a return to a 2% rate following recent drops in energy prices.

  • The consumer price index increased by 0.4% in October, reversing two months of declines and exceeding market forecasts of a 0.3% increase.

  • The uptick in inflation may reduce the likelihood of a substantial interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December 2024.

  • Andrew Kelvin from TD Securities indicated that while a rate cut in December is likely, its extent may depend on decisions made by the Federal Reserve.

  • BMO chief economist Douglas Porter suggested that a 25-basis-point cut is more probable than a larger cut, influenced by recent economic indicators.

  • Despite the rise in inflation, core inflation measures remain above the 2% target, which is a concern for the Bank of Canada.

  • Store-bought food prices rose by 2.7% year-over-year in October, reflecting a broader trend of rising costs in grocery items.

  • Currently, the key interest rate stands at 3.75% as the central bank assesses economic data ahead of its upcoming announcement.

  • This inflation data is crucial as it precedes the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement on December 11, where there is a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

Summary based on 3 sources


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