Canada's Inflation Surges to 2% in October, Impacting Interest Rate Cut Prospects
November 19, 2024Additionally, property taxes experienced a significant increase of 6% from the previous year, marking the highest annual rise since 1992.
Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 2.0% in October 2024, surpassing expectations of 1.9%, primarily due to a smaller annual decrease in gasoline prices.
Gasoline prices fell by only 4% in October compared to a 10.7% drop in September, contributing to the overall rise in inflation.
This increase marks the first rise in the annual inflation rate since June, aligning with central bank predictions of a return to a 2% rate following recent drops in energy prices.
The consumer price index increased by 0.4% in October, reversing two months of declines and exceeding market forecasts of a 0.3% increase.
The uptick in inflation may reduce the likelihood of a substantial interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in December 2024.
Andrew Kelvin from TD Securities indicated that while a rate cut in December is likely, its extent may depend on decisions made by the Federal Reserve.
BMO chief economist Douglas Porter suggested that a 25-basis-point cut is more probable than a larger cut, influenced by recent economic indicators.
Despite the rise in inflation, core inflation measures remain above the 2% target, which is a concern for the Bank of Canada.
Store-bought food prices rose by 2.7% year-over-year in October, reflecting a broader trend of rising costs in grocery items.
Currently, the key interest rate stands at 3.75% as the central bank assesses economic data ahead of its upcoming announcement.
This inflation data is crucial as it precedes the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement on December 11, where there is a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
Summary based on 3 sources
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Sources
Investing.com • Nov 19, 2024
Canada's inflation rate jumps back to 2%, likely curbing large rate-cut betsInvesting.com • Nov 19, 2024
Canada's annual inflation rate rises to 2% in October