Global Economy Rebounds, But US Debt and China Slowdown Pose Risks
October 21, 2024The global economy is showing signs of recovery, yet underlying weaknesses and tensions continue to pose challenges.
According to the Brookings-Financial Times TIGER index, this recovery is largely supported by the strong performance of the US economy.
In the US, inflation is gradually falling and unemployment is decreasing, contributing to robust domestic demand; however, declining consumer confidence may impact the upcoming presidential election.
Rising public debt in the US presents risks to macroeconomic stability, further complicated by the policy agendas of both presidential candidates.
While the US and India are experiencing strong growth, many advanced and several emerging economies, including China, are facing slowdowns due to high debt and ineffective policymaking.
India stands out as a bright spot in the global economy, benefiting from strong infrastructure investment and a growing manufacturing sector.
Conversely, China's economy is faltering despite new monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts, as these measures have not sufficiently addressed weak domestic demand and private-sector confidence issues.
For China to recover, targeted fiscal policies and structural reforms are necessary to enhance productivity and restore business confidence.
In Japan, the central bank has raised interest rates to combat inflation, although this may not effectively stimulate household consumption.
Core eurozone economies, particularly Germany and France, are struggling with stagnant growth and high energy costs, prompting continued rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
The UK has gained some economic traction but faces challenges such as declining business investment and significant fiscal risks.
Many Latin American countries are grappling with economic challenges, including budget deficits and debt burdens, despite Brazil and Mexico showing promising growth.
Summary based on 1 source
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Source
The Business Standard • Oct 19, 2024
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