Global Economy Rebounds, But US Debt and China Slowdown Pose Risks

October 21, 2024
Global Economy Rebounds, But US Debt and China Slowdown Pose Risks
  • The global economy is showing signs of recovery, yet underlying weaknesses and tensions continue to pose challenges.

  • According to the Brookings-Financial Times TIGER index, this recovery is largely supported by the strong performance of the US economy.

  • In the US, inflation is gradually falling and unemployment is decreasing, contributing to robust domestic demand; however, declining consumer confidence may impact the upcoming presidential election.

  • Rising public debt in the US presents risks to macroeconomic stability, further complicated by the policy agendas of both presidential candidates.

  • While the US and India are experiencing strong growth, many advanced and several emerging economies, including China, are facing slowdowns due to high debt and ineffective policymaking.

  • India stands out as a bright spot in the global economy, benefiting from strong infrastructure investment and a growing manufacturing sector.

  • Conversely, China's economy is faltering despite new monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts, as these measures have not sufficiently addressed weak domestic demand and private-sector confidence issues.

  • For China to recover, targeted fiscal policies and structural reforms are necessary to enhance productivity and restore business confidence.

  • In Japan, the central bank has raised interest rates to combat inflation, although this may not effectively stimulate household consumption.

  • Core eurozone economies, particularly Germany and France, are struggling with stagnant growth and high energy costs, prompting continued rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

  • The UK has gained some economic traction but faces challenges such as declining business investment and significant fiscal risks.

  • Many Latin American countries are grappling with economic challenges, including budget deficits and debt burdens, despite Brazil and Mexico showing promising growth.

Summary based on 1 source


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The global economy’s hidden weaknesses

The Business Standard • Oct 19, 2024

The global economy’s hidden weaknesses

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