U.S. Services Sector Surges in September, Defies Expectations with Robust Growth

October 4, 2024
U.S. Services Sector Surges in September, Defies Expectations with Robust Growth
  • The prices index for services inputs rose to 59.4, indicating a faster pace of price growth compared to August's 57.3.

  • The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2%, having increased from 3.4% in April 2023.

  • Recent data also reflects a modest increase in consumer spending and a reduced goods trade deficit, suggesting sustained economic momentum.

  • The Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates a 2.5% annualized growth rate for GDP in the third quarter, following a 3.0% growth rate in the second quarter.

  • In September, the U.S. services sector demonstrated robust growth, with the Institute for Supply Management reporting a nonmanufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) of 54.9, a notable increase from 51.5 in August.

  • This surge in service sector activity surpassed economists' expectations, who had predicted a more modest rise to 51.7.

  • The increase in the services PMI was primarily driven by a significant rise in new orders and business activity, with the new orders index climbing to 59.4 and the business activity index reaching 59.9.

  • The ISM's new orders measure also surged to 59.4, marking the highest level since February 2023, indicating strong demand.

  • Despite this growth, the employment measure within the services sector fell to 48.1, suggesting a contraction in job growth, which may raise concerns for the Federal Reserve.

  • The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the labor market, especially as it has recently initiated a rate-easing cycle.

  • While businesses are experiencing higher input costs, this is not expected to significantly impact inflation, which has been on a decline.

  • In contrast, a separate ISM report indicated continued contraction in U.S. manufacturing activity, with the manufacturing PMI holding steady at 47.2 in September.

Summary based on 3 sources


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