As the fourth quarter of 2024 approaches, both the US and global economies are demonstrating resilience despite numerous challenges.

Current data indicates that the US economy continues to grow at an annualized rate of approximately 3% quarter-on-quarter, defying recession fears.

Following a downturn in early August, US equity markets have stabilized, with indices reaching new highs and Shiller P/E ratios significantly above pre-financial crisis levels.

The employment rate has risen due to increased labor-force participation, reflecting a strong labor market, although it remains historically low.

Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are unlikely to revert to the ultra-low interest rates seen before the pandemic, with expectations for higher rates in the future.

Medium-term risks to achieving the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target may be skewed to the upside, complicating the path for monetary easing amid persistent inflation and wage growth.

Core CPI inflation in the US was reported at 3.2% year-on-year in August, with estimates suggesting an average CPI of 2.9% for 2024 and 2.5% for 2025.

Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration policies could impact output growth and inflation, while his stance on the Federal Reserve may increase uncertainty regarding monetary policy.

The upcoming US elections in November are expected to significantly influence the global economic outlook for 2025 and beyond.

The election is anticipated to be a close contest between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, following President Biden's withdrawal from the race.

A victory for Harris could lead to continuity in economic policies, while a Trump presidency may bring more significant economic changes and uncertainties.

Concerns have arisen regarding euro-area sovereign debt markets following snap elections in France and a global equity market downturn in early August.