PBOC Buys $28.52B in Bonds, Signals Shift to Long-Term Strategy Amid Economic Challenges

October 4, 2024
PBOC Buys $28.52B in Bonds, Signals Shift to Long-Term Strategy Amid Economic Challenges
  • In recent weeks, China's bond market saw a significant rally as investors sought safer assets amid ongoing economic challenges.

  • As part of its open-market operations, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) purchased 200 billion yuan (approximately $28.52 billion) in government bonds during September.

  • However, the PBOC did not specify whether these purchases consisted of short-term or long-dated bonds, a departure from its usual practice of providing such details.

  • The central bank stated that its bond purchases are intended to strengthen counter-cyclical monetary policy and ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system.

  • Recent yield changes suggest the PBOC may shift its strategy by starting to purchase long-term bonds, indicating a potential change in its approach.

  • This shift is reflected in the increase of ten-year and 30-year bond yields by 13 and 22 basis points, respectively, resulting in a steeper yield curve.

  • The reversal in bond yields followed the announcement of a significant stimulus package aimed at revitalizing the economy, which had previously driven yields to record lows.

  • Analysts believe the PBOC's strategy aims to support lower short-term yields to foster economic growth while promoting higher long-term yields to stimulate investment.

  • Wei Li from BNP Paribas emphasized that the PBOC's goal is to maintain an upward-sloping yield curve to encourage growth and investment.

  • This aggressive stimulus package, the most significant since the pandemic, led to notable gains in the stock market but caused a decline in bond prices.

  • Market analysts suggest that there may be a shift of funds from bonds to equities as investors anticipate stronger economic growth and higher stock returns.

  • Reflecting this trend, Chinese bond mutual fund assets fell to 6.55 trillion yuan in August, marking a 6% decline from the previous month.

Summary based on 2 sources


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