U.S.-China Economic Decoupling Accelerates: Tariff Battles and Investment Policies Signal Deepening Divide

April 17, 2025
U.S.-China Economic Decoupling Accelerates: Tariff Battles and Investment Policies Signal Deepening Divide
  • With current elevated tariffs, there is a growing concern that bilateral trade between the two countries could come to a halt within a few years.

  • Analysts at Capital Economics have noted that the decoupling between the U.S. and China is accelerating, marked by rising tariffs and non-tariff barriers that indicate a shift toward economic disengagement.

  • As both nations continue to dismantle their economic ties, the potential for a significant reset in U.S.-China relations appears to be diminishing.

  • Experts caution that the ongoing tariff conflict could expand to encompass a broader range of non-tariff barriers and additional decoupling measures.

  • Recent actions have included stricter U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors, while China has responded by halting Boeing deliveries and suspending postal services to the U.S.

  • Investment flows are expected to become a new battleground, particularly with the 'America First Investment Policy' introduced in February, which proposes measures such as delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges and restricting capital flows.

  • Despite some lingering hope for dialogue, the prevailing sentiment suggests a preference for further separation, with officials from both the U.S. and China potentially supporting this direction behind closed doors.

  • Former President Donald Trump has expressed interest in negotiating a deal with China, but he insists that China must take the initiative, leading analysts to question the likelihood of reaching a significant agreement.

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