U.S.-China Economic Decoupling Accelerates: Tariff Battles and Investment Policies Signal Deepening Divide
April 17, 2025
With current elevated tariffs, there is a growing concern that bilateral trade between the two countries could come to a halt within a few years.
Analysts at Capital Economics have noted that the decoupling between the U.S. and China is accelerating, marked by rising tariffs and non-tariff barriers that indicate a shift toward economic disengagement.
As both nations continue to dismantle their economic ties, the potential for a significant reset in U.S.-China relations appears to be diminishing.
Experts caution that the ongoing tariff conflict could expand to encompass a broader range of non-tariff barriers and additional decoupling measures.
Recent actions have included stricter U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors, while China has responded by halting Boeing deliveries and suspending postal services to the U.S.
Investment flows are expected to become a new battleground, particularly with the 'America First Investment Policy' introduced in February, which proposes measures such as delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges and restricting capital flows.
Despite some lingering hope for dialogue, the prevailing sentiment suggests a preference for further separation, with officials from both the U.S. and China potentially supporting this direction behind closed doors.
Former President Donald Trump has expressed interest in negotiating a deal with China, but he insists that China must take the initiative, leading analysts to question the likelihood of reaching a significant agreement.
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Investing.com • Apr 17, 2025
U.S.-China deal unlikely as momentum shifts toward deeper reset: strategist