China's GDP Growth Underwhelms Despite Stimulus Efforts; Global Markets React with Caution

October 21, 2024
China's GDP Growth Underwhelms Despite Stimulus Efforts; Global Markets React with Caution
  • China's economy showed a third-quarter GDP growth of 4.6%, which, while slightly above expectations, follows two quarters of notably weak growth.

  • Additionally, the PBOC has introduced measures to inject over $100 billion into the stock market, which has resulted in a 3.6% increase in Shanghai's blue chip equity index.

  • Globally, financial conditions are easing as central banks reduce rates and stock markets rise, prompting Asian investors to keep an eye on the dollar's recovery, which recently hit a three-month high.

  • Interestingly, while stock performance has been strong, bond yields are falling again, with the 10-year yield approaching 2.00%, after an initial rise driven by hopes for economic support.

  • In the U.S., economic data continues to surpass expectations, with GDP growth exceeding 3% and strong earnings pushing Wall Street to new highs, although some analysts warn that this optimism may be excessive.

  • This weak performance has raised concerns, with economist Phil Suttle noting that the two-quarter growth rate was the weakest in modern history, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • In response to these economic challenges, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is anticipated to cut its loan prime rates by 20 to 25 basis points to support the struggling property sector and stimulate growth.

  • PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng announced these measures during a financial forum in Beijing, emphasizing the need to combat deflation and revive economic activity.

  • Despite these positive stock market movements, Asian markets are opening with a cautious sentiment, reflecting ongoing concerns about China's economic situation.

  • However, U.S.-China trade tensions are resurfacing, particularly following Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's threats of imposing high tariffs on China if tensions over Taiwan escalate.

  • Looking ahead, key developments to monitor include the PBOC's loan prime rate decision, Malaysia's GDP data for the third quarter, and a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.

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