Chinese Markets Plunge as Beijing’s Stimulus Falls Short, Investors Unimpressed

October 9, 2024
Chinese Markets Plunge as Beijing’s Stimulus Falls Short, Investors Unimpressed
  • Chinese shares saw a significant decline as economic stimulus plans from Beijing fell short of investor expectations, leading to a 3.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite index.

  • Investor disappointment was evident as the Hang Seng Index plummeted 9.4%, following NDRC Chair Zheng Shanjie's vague assurances of achieving a 5% GDP growth target for 2024.

  • Overall spending levels announced by the government were significantly lower than the multi-trillion yuan amounts anticipated by analysts, contributing to market skepticism.

  • The NDRC's new measures aimed at boosting investment and supporting small to medium-sized businesses did not address the pressing issues of declining housing sales and prices.

  • China's economy continues to struggle with recovery post-COVID-19, facing challenges such as high urban youth unemployment at 18.8% and a troubled property market.

  • Despite the recent declines, the People's Bank of China's measures, including interest rate cuts and over $100 billion in funding, previously led to a nearly 40% increase in the CSI 300 index.

  • UBS chief economist Tao Wang suggested that the market was expecting a more substantial fiscal stimulus package, estimated between 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan ($210 billion to $280 billion) soon.

  • The rally in Chinese stocks that began in late September was initially fueled by expectations of government stimulus for 2024, but those hopes have since diminished.

  • Market adjustments were reflected in the U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note decreasing to 4.02%, indicating shifting expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policies.

  • The downturn in Chinese markets was exacerbated by a tech selloff on Wall Street, geopolitical concerns, and expectations of a smaller Federal Reserve rate cut.

  • In contrast to the declines in China, Japan's Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.6%, buoyed by strong performances from companies like Seven & i Holdings.

  • U.S. equity futures remained stable in Asia, supported by positive sentiment from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate management for a soft economic landing.

Summary based on 19 sources


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