Europe's Looming Population Crisis: Declining Birth Rates and Anti-Immigration Politics Threaten Future
February 18, 2025
Europe is facing a potential population crisis, with projections indicating a significant decline in its native population due to low birth rates and rising anti-immigration politics.
Current trends suggest that the EU's population could decrease by 6% by the year 2100, dropping from 447 million to 419 million, while a scenario with no immigration could result in a staggering decline of over a third to just 295 million.
Countries like Italy, Germany, and France, which have seen a surge in anti-immigration sentiment, are particularly vulnerable, with Italy's population projected to halve without immigration.
Eurostat projects that by 2100, 21% of the EU population will be over 65, and this figure could rise to 32% under current immigration levels, escalating to 36% without any immigration, which presents severe economic challenges.
Experts warn that an aging population will lead to slower economic growth and increased tax burdens, as spending on pensions and healthcare rises significantly.
The health and social care sectors will increasingly rely on immigrant labor to address the needs of an aging population, with many EU health systems already dependent on immigrant professionals.
While increasing immigration can help mitigate demographic challenges, it is not a complete solution; additional measures such as raising employment rates, reforming pensions, and adjusting tax burdens are also necessary.
Rural areas in the EU will disproportionately suffer from population decline, prompting villages like Camini in southern Italy to implement resettlement projects for refugees to revitalize their communities.
The Camini project has successfully settled refugees, leading to an increase in the village's population and the reopening of its school, serving as a model for other regions facing similar depopulation challenges.
The rise of far-right parties, such as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany, threatens to exacerbate this demographic issue by promoting stricter immigration policies.
Summary based on 1 source
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The Guardian • Feb 18, 2025
Europe’s population crisis: see how your country compares – visualised