On January 22, 2025, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, commemorating the 62nd anniversary of the Élysée Treaty, which symbolizes Franco-German reconciliation post-World War II.

While the meeting marks a significant occasion, celebrations are expected to be subdued due to the current political climate and challenges both leaders face.

Scholz is trailing in polls ahead of upcoming parliamentary elections, while Macron is grappling with a domestic political crisis, adding urgency to their discussions.

The agenda for their talks will focus on bilateral relations, security and economic policies, and the transatlantic relationship, highlighting their interconnectedness.

A key topic will be security guarantees for Ukraine, particularly in light of ongoing tensions with Russia and expectations of peace initiatives from the new U.S. president.

Friedrich Merz, the leader of the German opposition and potential future chancellor, has proposed joint European military purchases from the U.S. to secure better pricing for defense hardware.

Experts suggest that while Merz may present challenges, his leadership could foster more open dialogue on contentious issues compared to Scholz's more reserved approach.

The Élysée Treaty is viewed as essential for Franco-German cooperation, particularly in countering challenges from figures like Donald Trump and emphasizing political unity in foreign and defense policies.

Poland, under Prime Minister Donald Tusk, is prioritizing security amid external threats, particularly from Russia and Trump, and plans to allocate 4.7% of its GDP for defense in 2025.

Public sentiment towards Germany in France has shifted, with recent polling indicating that 51% of French adults hold a negative view of Germany, despite generally good Franco-German relations.

Historically, the Franco-German partnership has faced challenges, with recent disagreements under Macron and Scholz over key European issues, straining their relationship.

Both leaders aim to emphasize the importance of Franco-German cooperation in strengthening a united, strong, and sovereign Europe that upholds transatlantic ties and defends shared values.