Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.3% as ECB Faces Pressure to Cut Rates

November 29, 2024
Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.3% as ECB Faces Pressure to Cut Rates
  • This increase in inflation marks a significant decline from a peak of 10.6% in October 2022, largely due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the ECB.

  • The rise in inflation is influenced by statistical base effects, as lower figures from the previous year were replaced by higher, albeit modest, current figures.

  • Energy prices decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, but this was offset by a 3.9% increase in service sector prices, highlighting the complexities of current inflation dynamics.

  • Core inflation, which the ECB closely monitors, remained stable at 2.7%, reflecting a slight decrease in service costs countered by rising goods inflation.

  • As a response to these inflation trends, investors are anticipating a series of rate cuts through at least mid-2025, with projections suggesting a drop in the deposit rate to 1.75% by the end of 2025.

  • The ECB is expected to consider an interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting on December 12, 2024, with debates ongoing about whether to implement a 25 or 50 basis point reduction.

  • Markets are currently leaning towards a smaller cut of 25 basis points, with less than a 10% chance of a larger move, although these expectations have been fluctuating.

  • In November 2024, inflation in the euro zone rose to 2.3%, surpassing the previous month's rate of 2.0% and the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%.

  • Inflation in Germany, the largest economy in the euro zone, remained steady at 2.4%, which could influence the ECB's decision-making process regarding rate cuts.

  • High central bank rates, while effective in reducing inflation by increasing borrowing costs, also pose risks to economic growth by dampening demand.

  • Trade policy uncertainties, particularly under the incoming US administration, add to the challenges faced by the Eurozone's export-driven economy.

  • The European Commission projects Eurozone economic growth at 0.8% for 2024 and 1.3% for 2025, suggesting a cautious outlook amid these inflationary pressures.

Summary based on 4 sources


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