Stagnation Shadows Italy and Germany's Service Sectors; Recession Fears Rise

October 4, 2024
Stagnation Shadows Italy and Germany's Service Sectors; Recession Fears Rise
  • Italy's service sector growth nearly stagnated in September, with the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index for services dropping to 50.5 from 51.4 in August.

  • Similarly, Germany's services sector growth also slowed for the fourth consecutive month in September, indicating a trend towards stagnation.

  • This decline marks the sixth consecutive decrease in the index since it peaked at 54.6 in March.

  • The September reading is just above the 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction, and fell short of the median forecast of 51.0 from a Reuters survey.

  • The composite Purchasing Managers' Index, which encompasses both services and manufacturing, fell to 49.7 from 50.8, signaling contraction for the first time this year.

  • In addition, Italy's employment index edged down to 50.9 from 51.2, reflecting a slowdown in hiring practices.

  • A related survey revealed that Italy's smaller manufacturing sector has contracted for six consecutive months as of September.

  • The new business sub-index also decreased to 49.3 from 49.8, indicating further contraction in this area.

  • Despite the overall slowdown, staffing cuts in the services sector increased in September, although they remained moderate.

  • Expectations for the year ahead are notably pessimistic, with 25% of survey participants expressing optimism compared to 23% who are pessimistic.

  • Concerns about a looming recession are prevalent among survey participants, highlighting the economic uncertainty.

  • Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, pointed out a significant decrease in incoming orders as a major concern for the sector.

Summary based on 3 sources


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Sources



Italy's Service Sector Stagnates in September, PMI Shows

U.S. News & World Report • Oct 3, 2024

Italy's Service Sector Stagnates in September, PMI Shows

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