The IPCC provides regular scientific assessments on climate change to inform international policy, focusing on causes, consequences, and mitigation pathways.

Supported by EU-funded projects NDC ASPECTS, IAM COMPACT, and DIAMOND, the study examines how policy, technology, and other drivers have influenced future emission scenarios.

The authors stress the need for continuous recalibration of scenarios to align with evolving technology, policy, and societal developments to stay relevant to policymakers.

The analysis indicates that recent reference scenarios without specific climate policies show lower CO2 emissions compared to earlier reports, driven by declining costs of low-carbon technologies and reduced economic growth expectations.

Despite a shrinking carbon budget from insufficient climate action, mitigation costs have not risen owing to more favorable projections for low-carbon technologies.

A recent study published in 'Nature Climate Change' analyzes the evolution of emission pathways presented in United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports over the last decade.

The NDC ASPECTS project concluded in 2024, while IAM COMPACT is set to end in August 2025 and DIAMOND in November 2026.

Mitigation pathways aiming to limit global warming to below 1.5 to 2 °C emphasize increased electrification and a greater reliance on variable renewable energy sources in electricity generation.

This shift indicates a declining dependence on coal, nuclear power, bioenergy, and carbon capture and storage due to changing cost dynamics.