2050 Climate Catastrophe: Global Food Security Threatened by Potential Atlantic Ocean Collapse
January 21, 2025By the year 2050, the world could face catastrophic climate impacts, including the potential loss of up to 50% of suitable land for key crops like wheat and maize, particularly if the Atlantic Ocean circulation collapses, which would severely threaten global food security.
Climate impacts are occurring at lower temperature thresholds than previously anticipated, leading to heightened risks of mass migration, increased mortality, and potential conflicts.
The anticipated consequences of climate change, such as sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss, are expected to trigger significant economic shocks and resource conflicts.
This situation underscores the urgent need for enhanced global risk management practices that can effectively address the intertwined risks posed by climate change and nature, leveraging principles from actuarial science.
Current global risk management frameworks are inadequate, often overlooking systemic risks that could exacerbate the situation.
Actuaries are uniquely equipped to evaluate long-term, complex risks amid uncertainty, employing methodologies like reverse stress testing and risk appetite frameworks to better understand potential outcomes.
Critics argue that the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C fails to realistically assess the associated risks, with many environmental tipping points approaching activation.
Conventional climate models are often criticized for underestimating economic losses, with projections indicating potential GDP losses ranging from 15% to 44% by 2050.
The report highlights that traditional economic theories neglect the critical economic dependency on natural resources, which are essential for production and sustainability.
Experts in modeling low-probability, high-severity 'tail risks' reveal systemic failures and cascading tipping points in policies that are frequently overlooked.
The authors advocate for a redefinition of global policy priorities that acknowledges the interdependencies between ecological systems and societal needs.
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Collapse 2050 • Jan 20, 2025
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