The American Southwest is currently facing its driest conditions since the year 800, primarily due to a decade-long 'megadrought', which has resulted in severe bushfires in Los Angeles.

The Palmer Drought Severity Index indicates a long-term drying trend in the Southwest, with the period from 1999 to 2023 being the driest on record, significantly drier than previous dry spells.

Kruczkiewicz noted that while drier conditions have increased the risk of wildfires in the area, it remains unclear whether climate change directly caused the recent fires in Los Angeles.

Research shows that human-caused climate change has contributed to approximately 42% of the soil moisture deficit since 2000, with rising temperatures accelerating evaporation and exacerbating drought conditions.

A study published in Nature Climate Change in February 2022 characterized the ongoing period since 2000 as a 'megadrought', reflecting a historical pattern of repeated droughts in the region from 800 to 1600, followed by a 400-year hiatus.

Drought conditions are widespread, impacting several states including Southern California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and parts of Colorado and Texas, with western Texas experiencing 'exceptional drought' status.

In Los Angeles, rainfall has been alarmingly low, with the city receiving less than 2.54 millimeters since May 2024, despite a significant rainfall event in February 2024 that brought nearly 30 centimeters in just two days.

Despite heavy rains in the past two winters, these have not been enough to reverse the ongoing drying trend, with minimal rainfall recorded this winter.

From 2000 to 2021, average temperatures in the Southwest were 0.91 degrees higher than those recorded from 1950 to 1999, further intensifying the drought.

Natural climate phenomena, such as the El Nino-La Nina oscillation, also play a role in weather patterns, with La Nina contributing to drier conditions on the US West Coast.

Key factors for wildfire risk, including low humidity, dry conditions, and wind, are currently prevalent in the region, according to climate scientist Andrew J. Kruczkiewicz.