Field observations and historical data confirm that trends in wildlife populations are linked to these changing weather patterns, ruling out other potential causes like disease or habitat destruction.

These weather changes have significant implications, including increased human-wildlife conflict, shifts in reproductive patterns, and reduced synchronization of breeding among wildlife.

Extended droughts suppress reproduction rates among wildlife, while heavy rainfall can increase breeding synchrony but also raise mortality rates due to predation and disease.

Overall, the findings underscore the urgent need to address the impacts of climate change on this vital ecosystem, which is crucial for both wildlife and local communities reliant on tourism.

The Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, which includes Kenya's Maasai Mara and Tanzania's Serengeti National Park, is renowned for its rich wildlife and the annual Great Migration of millions of animals.

A collaborative study has tracked weather changes in the Mara-Serengeti since 1913, revealing significant climatic shifts over the decades.

Researchers found that over the past six decades, the region has experienced above-average rainfall, recurrent severe droughts, and a temperature increase ranging from 4.8°C to 5.8°C.

Specifically, average monthly minimum temperatures in Narok Town have risen by 5.3°C from 1960 to 2024, indicating rapid warming in the area.

The strengthening of the Indian Ocean Dipole is linked to global warming, resulting in more extreme weather patterns, including floods and droughts in the ecosystem.

El Niño events tend to increase rainfall in East Africa, while La Niña is associated with droughts, both of which have been influenced by shifts in oceanic conditions since the 1970s.

The study highlights the influence of global climate systems, particularly the Southern Oscillation Index and the Indian Ocean Dipole, which have significantly affected East Africa's climate since around 1970.

Severe droughts and extreme flooding events are becoming more frequent and intense, disrupting wildlife populations and biodiversity in the region.