Researchers at the University of Stirling have developed a model predicting that tick populations in Scotland could nearly double by 2080 due to climate change, particularly if global temperatures rise by 4°C.

The study, led by Professor Rachel Norman, emphasizes that this model can also assess the risk of diseases associated with rising tick populations.

The model indicates a 26% increase in tick density with just a 1°C rise in temperatures by 2080.

While world leaders have aimed to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C to mitigate severe climate impacts, this may not be sufficient to control the proliferation of ticks.

Areas previously considered tick-free, such as montane habitats, are expected to become suitable for tick populations by 2080.

The study predicts that woodland habitats will see the highest absolute increases in tick density, while mountain slopes will experience the largest proportional increases.

Higher tick populations are likely to lead to a surge in Lyme disease cases, a bacterial infection that can cause severe long-term health issues.

Lyme disease, which affects about one in ten people globally, is often misdiagnosed and can have lasting effects despite treatment.

The methodology used in this research is dynamic and can be adapted for other regions and vector species, enhancing our understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

The findings were published in the journal Interface under the title 'GIS-ODE: linking dynamic population models with GIS to predict pathogen vector abundance across a country under climate change scenarios.'

Given Scotland's increasing concern over tick abundance and Lyme disease incidence, this ecological modeling is particularly relevant and timely.