LNP Poised for Comeback in Queensland as Labor Faces Potential Historic Loss
October 26, 2024The LNP, led by David Crisafulli, is attempting to reclaim power in Queensland after losing to Annastacia Palaszczuk in 2015.
With the state election set for October 26, Labor is anticipated to lose power, marking the first government change in nearly a decade.
Labor has historically dominated Queensland elections, winning 11 of the last 12, but currently holds 51 seats compared to the LNP's 35 in the 93-seat parliament.
Despite a loss of support for Crisafulli, the LNP is predicted to narrowly defeat Premier Steven Miles's Labor government with a lead of 52.5 to 47.5 percent after preferences.
If the projected swing of 5.7 percent is consistent across the state, the LNP could gain 13 Labor seats, achieving a two-seat majority.
The Newspoll, conducted from last Friday to Thursday, surveyed 1,151 Queenslanders, while over 600,000 voters had already cast their ballots.
The rise in early voting may limit the impact of last-minute campaign efforts, as many voters have already made their decisions.
Labor is at risk of losing key seats in the far north, including Townsville and Cairns, which have narrow margins.
Premier Steven Miles's personal support has risen, leading Crisafulli in the preferred premier rankings, 45 to 42 percent, indicating a shift in voter sentiment.
Recent polling indicates that Crisafulli's support has diminished during the campaign while Miles has gained traction.
Political analyst Adam Hannah noted that the LNP's focus on youth crime has been overshadowed by other issues during the campaign.
Labor's campaign has focused on cost of living measures, including reduced public transport fares and free school lunches.
Summary based on 2 sources
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Sources
news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site • Oct 24, 2024
Shock new poll ahead of electionnews.com.au — Australia’s leading news site • Oct 25, 2024
‘Wipeout’ unlikely as state heads to polls