Australia's Inflation Dips to 3.5%, RBA Keeps Rate Hike Fears Alive

August 29, 2024
Australia's Inflation Dips to 3.5%, RBA Keeps Rate Hike Fears Alive
  • Inflation in Australia was recorded at 3.5% for the year ending in July, a decrease from 3.8% in June, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

  • This July figure slightly exceeded economists' expectations of 3.4%, indicating a trend of slowing inflation despite remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%.

  • The rise in headline inflation was primarily driven by higher fresh food prices, while housing costs saw a slight decline.

  • Electricity prices fell significantly by 6.4% in July, contributing to the overall decrease in inflation, although gas prices increased by 5.7%.

  • In light of the persistent inflation, recent minutes from the RBA's August meeting revealed that policymakers are considering further rate increases.

  • Despite these warnings, some investors are speculating that interest rates may decrease in the upcoming September meeting, with a 20% probability priced in for a cut.

  • The higher-than-expected inflation figures have intensified concerns regarding potential interest rate hikes by the RBA.

  • The RBA has dampened expectations for a near-term interest rate cut, affecting hopes for repayment relief this year.

  • Economist Abhijit Surya predicts inflation will meet the RBA's target by year-end but expects the bank to maintain current interest rates into the first half of next year.

  • The RBA's focus on quarterly CPI data means that significant monetary policy decisions may not be influenced by the July figures, with the next important release scheduled for October 30.

  • As the RBA is expected to maintain its current policy stance at the September meeting, this could lead to short-term strength for the Australian dollar.

  • Overall, the drop in inflation is attributed to a significant fall in electricity prices and a reduction in petrol costs, although essential costs like rents and food continue to rise.

Summary based on 7 sources


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Sources


Electricity and petrol prices drive down inflation

The Sydney Morning Herald • Aug 28, 2024

Electricity and petrol prices drive down inflation



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