Goldman Sachs: AI to Slash Oil Prices, Boost US Shale Reserves, and Pressure OPEC+

September 4, 2024
Goldman Sachs: AI to Slash Oil Prices, Boost US Shale Reserves, and Pressure OPEC+
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts that artificial intelligence (AI) could significantly lower oil prices over the next decade by enhancing supply and reducing operational costs.

  • Despite the anticipated rise in power demand due to AI, experts argue that the increase in oil supply will likely surpass this demand.

  • While AI will elevate overall power consumption, it is not expected to significantly impact oil demand, as oil is not a primary energy source for power generation.

  • Current market trends show a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude futures recently dropping to $74.02 per barrel, the lowest since December.

  • U.S. oil futures have seen a significant drop, reflecting broader market concerns and contributing to a bearish sentiment.

  • Investor reactions to OPEC data reveal that eight OPEC+ members plan to increase production by 180,000 barrels per day, raising fears of oversupply amid weakening demand.

  • AI applications in the oil and gas sector are diverse, including locating exploration sites, subsurface engineering, reservoir modeling, and optimizing drilling extraction rates.

  • Analysts believe that AI will improve logistics and productivity, leading to a substantial increase in oil supply in the coming years.

  • The expected supply gains from AI are projected to greatly exceed any potential increase in oil demand, further pressuring prices.

  • A decline in oil prices could negatively impact the incomes of oil producers, particularly those within OPEC+.

  • Despite the benefits of AI, the surge in power consumption from tech companies focusing on AI is creating competition for power resources, notably with industries like Bitcoin mining.

  • The bank's analysis suggests that AI could increase recoverable resources, potentially boosting US shale oil reserves by 8% to 20%, which translates to an additional 30 billion barrels.

Summary based on 5 sources


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